No Warnings

Expires:No;;680400
FXUS66 KSGX 070457
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
855 PM PST FRI DEC 6 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN 
WILL BRING RAIN...SNOW...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO OUR 
REGION ON SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 3000 AND 3500 
FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR HIGHER 
ELEVATIONS. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND 
DESERTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM EXITS THE 
AREA SUNDAY...LEAVING US WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS FOR 
THE FAVORED PASSES AND CANYONS ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR A 
GRADUAL WARMING TREND AND FAIR SKIES THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WILL 
BE IMPACTING OUR AREA SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY WEST OF OREGON THIS 
EVENING. THIS STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE DOWN THE CALIFORNIA 
INTERIOR TONIGHT ON POWERFUL 130KT 300 MB JET. AT 8 PM...THE LEADING 
EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXTENDED FROM MONTEREY TO 
YOSEMITE NATIONAL PARK. THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN SOCAL EARLY 
SATURDAY MORNING...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH 
MIDDAY AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES.   
MOST OF THE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL COME FROM THE 6000 FOOT 
DEEP MARINE LAYER WHICH WILL LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS 
SOMEWHAT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL BETWEEN 10AM AND 7PM 
SATURDAY. THIS IS WHEN A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER PWATS OF 0.75" OVER 
THE PACIFIC MOVES INTO SOCAL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE SURFACE COLD 
FRONT AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT. THE PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO 
SHOWERS SATURDAY EVENING. THE SHOWERS WILL LINGER LONGEST IN THE SAN 
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.    
PRECIP AMOUNTS...THE HIGH RES MESOSCALE RUNS SHOW SUBSTANTIAL 
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL 850 MB WINDS OF 
40-50KTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IS LIKELY ON SOME 
OF THE COASTAL SLOPES BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. SNOW LEVELS WILL 
LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND THE STRONG OROGRAPHICS MAY RESULT IN 
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ON THE SLOPES ABOVE 5000 FEET. A WINTER STORM 
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HIGHER MOUNTAINS SAT/SAT NIGHT. 
SURFACING MOUNTAIN WAVES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES 
AND ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. GUSTS COULD EXCEED 60 MPH IN THESE AREAS.  
CONTINUED COOL ON SUNDAY WITH A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING 
ACROSS SOCAL. THIS SHARP TROUGH WILL KEEP THE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE 
AND THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY DEEP. THE 00Z GFS GENERATES 
QPF OVER SOCAL SUNDAY EVENING WITH THIS SECOND SHORTWAVE...SOMETHING 
TO WATCH FOR IN SUCCESSIVE RUNS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION INTO THE 
FORECAST.   
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK...ON MONDAY MORNING A STRONG 
SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER NEVADA BRINGING MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY 
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE SOCAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. 
ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS ARE LIKELY IN SOME AREAS. 
FROST AND FREEZE CONCERNS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THIS 
COLD...DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHWEST. THE DAYS 
WILL BE COOL AND THE NIGHTS WILL BE COLD WITH FROST AND FREEZING 
TEMPERATURES IN THE WIND SHELTERED VALLEYS EACH NIGHT. THE AIRMASS 
MODIFIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR WARMER DAYS...BUT THE NIGHTS 
WILL REMAIN COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN 
THE VALLEYS IN THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS. 
ANOTHER TROUGH DROPS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND 
SATURDAY BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.    
&&
.AVIATION...
070300Z...SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS...WITH BASES 4500-6000 FT AND TOPS TO 
8000 FT MSL...WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER THE MTNS AND 
FOOTHILLS. -SHRA WILL DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT THROUGH SAT 
NIGHT...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER AND W OF THE MTNS. 
CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2500 FT MSL...AND VIS DOWN TO 4-6 SM IN 
SOME SHOWERS. SNOW LEVEL WILL LOWER TO AROUND 3500 FT...WITH SNOW 
AND ICE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATION AERODROMES. 
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN MTN WAVE ACTIVITY WITH MOD-STG 
UDDFS AND SURFACE WINDS GUSTING TO 50-60 KT OVER THE MTNS AND DESERT 
SLOPES SAT AFTN...WITH STRONG WINDS REACHING THE DESERT FLOOR SAT 
NIGHT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH TRAVERSING ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL 
CREATE GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 35 KT...AND STEEP SEAS TO 11 
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. 
GUSTY WINDS AND STEEP SEAS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING 
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 
FOR BOTH THE INNER AND OUTER COASTAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN 
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS 
AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE 
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR 
     THE RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY 
     MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
     HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 4 AM PST SUNDAY FOR THE 
     APPLE AND LUCERNE VALLEYS...COACHELLA VALLEY...SAN DIEGO 
     COUNTY DESERTS.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM PST SUNDAY FOR 
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER 
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 3 AM PST SUNDAY FOR 
     THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN 
     BORDER AND OUT 30 NM.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...MOEDE
AVIATION/MARINE...JJT
SYNOPSIS...BA

Expires:No;;682199
SXUS86 KSGX 070552
CGRSGX
COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1000 PM PST FRI DEC 6 2013
ID   /WX VSB  / WIND   / WAVE / SEA/ AIR/ PRESS/ REMARKS   STATION 
3L3  PC10     / ENE05  /      /    / 50 /      /           NEWPORT BEACH