Expires:No;;731566
FXUS66 KSGX 290345
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
845 PM PDT Sat May 28 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Stronger onshore flow and a deeper marine layer will keep the 
weather cooler this weekend. Gusty west winds will prevail over the 
mountains and deserts through late Sunday night. The strongest winds 
will occur over mountain ridges, desert slopes, and below passes. 
After a cool holiday weekend, a weak ridge will bring warmer weather 
into the middle of next week. Cooler weather returns later in the 
week as troughing redevelops along the West Coast. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The marine clouds cleared a good portion of the CA Bight today, but 
held over some of the valleys, keeping the afternoon rather cool. 
West winds have been strong and gusty through and below the San 
Gorgonio Pass and along some of the mountain ridges and desert slope 
areas. Peak winds exceeding 70 MPH were confined to the pass, but 
many of the onshore wind-prone areas of the mts/deserts reported 
gusts of 45 MPH or more by 6 PM PDT. A Wind Gust summary is 
headlined on our webpage, and Wind Advisories are up through late 
Sunday night for most of these areas. 

Our 00Z Miramar sounding indicated the likelihood of two cloud 
layers. The higher one is closer to 5K FT and supports the RH and 
cloud pattern extending up into the mountains. there was slo more 
moisture aloft, which helped t boost our PW to just over one inch.
Low clouds had mostly refilled the coastal basin by 9 PM PDT. An 
eddy is forecast to develop tonight, which should continue to 
support the marine clouds, and may help to deepen the layer further. 
It will also create south winds over coastal areas, which could be 
locally gusty at times along the beaches. Patchy drizzle is possible 
as well, especially along the south facing terrain, where some 
light, spotty rainfall accumulation is possible. A minor forecast 
update was issued to cover this possibility.

A large trough over the West will continue the onshore flow, 
enhancing the marine layer through Monday. This type of pattern 
will likely mean only partial clearing again of the low clouds 
over the coastal basin on Sunday. The trough will slowly lift out 
late Tuesday, paving the way for some weak ridging and warmer 
weather over the SW midweek. The coast will remain close to average, 
but high temperatures inland will edge back above average on Tuesday 
in the valleys, and solidly above average by Wednesday. Expect some 
marine clouds/patchy fog each day along the coast and into the 
western valleys next week, but not as extensive as this weekend.

The warming will begin to fade after Thursday, as another broad 
trough develops along the West Coast. And, there is decent consensus 
among the various ensemble members of the GFS/ECMWF models that 
next weekend will be cooler again. 

&&

.AVIATION...
290330Z...Coasts/Valleys...OVC015-025 tops 050 through 18Z 
Sunday. Partial clearing in the valleys after 18Z Sunday, but 
CIGS likely to persist all day Sunday at KSAN and KCRQ. 

Mountains/Deserts...SCT-BKN250 tonight and Sunday with gusty 
west/southwest winds 25-45 kts in the mountains, passes and  
deserts. Strongest winds at KPSP and KTRM will be Sunday afternoon 
and evening with VIS reduced to 3-5SM at times in blowing sand. MOD-
STG UDDFS vcnty of KPSP tonight through Sunday evening. 

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory is in effect over the Outer Waters through 
Sunday evening for strong west to northwest winds to 25 kts, 
combined seas 7-10 ft and steep waves. Gusty winds will return to 
the outer waters Monday afternoon with gusts 20 to 25 kts near 
San Clemente Island. 

&&

.BEACHES...
A Beach Hazards Statement will be in effect Sunday afternoon through 
Tuesday evening for above average surf and a strong rip currents.
A large west swell from 280 degrees with a period of 8 to 10 seconds 
will generate surf of 5-8 ft. Large waves and strong rip currents 
will create hazardous swimming conditions Sunday through Tuesday. 
Swell and surf will gradually lower Tuesday night into Wednesday. 
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE HIGH DESERTS...
Gusty winds and lowering RH values to 10-15% will enhance fire 
weather conditions over the high deserts of San Bernardino County on 
Sunday. West winds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts of 40-50 MPH will 
slowly subside Sunday night into Monday.

Farther south over the low deserts, westerly winds of 25-35 MPH and 
gusts of 50 to 60 MPH at times will continue through Sunday night, 
with minimum RH of 15-25%. 

Along and west of the mountains, a deep marine layer will keep RH 
values elevated through Sunday, before decreasing next week. 

&&

.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Coachella Valley-
     Riverside County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San 
     Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

     Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for Apple and Lucerne 
     Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains.

     Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday afternoon through Tuesday 
     evening for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County 
     Coastal Areas.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight PDT 
     Sunday night for Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican 
     Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente 
     Island.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/FIRE WEATHER...10
AVIATION/MARINE...Moede