No Warnings

Expires:No;;375677
FXUS66 KSGX 260956
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
256 AM PDT SAT JUL 26 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST WILL BRING SEASONALLY WARM SUMMER WEATHER 
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING PERIODS OF ISOLATED 
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 
DESERTS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS...WITH SMALLER CHANCES 
FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE MARINE LAYER WILL KEEP COASTAL 
AREAS COOLER WITH AREAS OF NIGHT AND MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG 
EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL BECOME 
MORE SHALLOW STARTING TUESDAY...WITH NIGHT AND MORNING CLOUDS MAINLY 
IN THE COASTAL AREAS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA FROM SOUTH TO 
NORTH BROUGHT NUMEROUS HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
YESTERDAY MORNING...WITH MOST AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING 
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING INDUCED BY SURFACE HEATING AND 
MOUNTAIN-TOP CONVERGENCE/DESERT CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES. 
MEANWHILE...MARINE LAYER STRATUS IS SLOWLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
COAST...AND SHOULD BE AT A DEPTH OF AROUND 2000 FEET AGAIN THIS 
MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD CLEAR BACK TO THE COAST BY LATE 
MORNING...ALTHOUGH HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PARTLY TO 
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE COAST AND VALLEYS. 
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO AND NORTH TEXAS IS 
WHAT IS BRINGING THE SOUTHERLY MONSOON SURGE INTO THE 
AREA...ALTHOUGH GPS MET PRECIPITABLE WATER SENSORS INDICATE THAT 
VALUES HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 1.3-1.6 INCHES THIS MORNING...WHERE 
THEY WERE AT 2 INCHES YESTERDAY AFTERNOON IN THE DESERTS. IN 
FACT...PALM SPRINGS EVEN REPORTED A DEW POINT OF 80 DEGREES AT 
AROUND 3 PM YESTERDAY! SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL 
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING 
TO MOVE INTO THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.3-1.6 
INCHES EACH DAY. THIS...IN ADDITION TO INSTABILITY PROVIDED BY 
SURFACE HEATING...SHOULD BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE 
MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND SUNDAY 
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A LITTLE 
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WHEN THE GFS...ECMWF AND NAM SHOW AN EASTERLY WAVE 
MOVING INTO THE AREA WHICH WOULD ENHANCE LIFT FURTHER. THIS ALSO 
COULD SPARK THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT AS 
WELL. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE FORECAST IF CONFIDENCE GROWS 
WITH FUTURE MODEL RUNS.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MAINLY SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE 
ORIENTS ITSELF IN A NORTH-TO-SOUTH FASHION...WITH THE GFS AND SREF 
SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LOWERING TO AROUND 1 INCH. 
STILL...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS 
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FOR TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST 
WEDNESDAY...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH MONSOON 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. GFS INDICATES SOME CHANCE FOR A RETURN OF 
MONSOONAL FLOW ON THURSDAY...BUT OTHER THAN THAT...IT REMAINS DRY 
FOR THE MOST PART. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF SHOWS MOSTLY DRY AIR 
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 
THE MARINE LAYER WILL GENERALLY REMAIN AT A SIMILAR DEPTH THROUGH 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS 500 MB HEIGHTS DO NOT CHANGE MUCH...AND ONSHORE 
FLOW REMAINS STEADY AS WELL. THUS...EXPECT NIGHT AND MORNING STRATUS 
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE COASTAL AND WESTERN VALLEY 
SECTIONS...WITH MINOR DAY-TO-DAY VARIATIONS. THE MARINE LAYER MAY 
BECOME SHALLOWER STARTING AROUND TUESDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. 
DAY-TIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT GENERALLY NEAR 
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY WARMER 
CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
260900Z...COAST/VALLEYS...AREAS OF STRATUS WITH BASES FROM 800-1200 
FT AND TOPS OF 1600 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING INLAND 
ACROSS THE ORANGE COUNTY PLAIN AND AROUND 15 MILES INLAND IN SAN 
DIEGO COUNTY WITH LOCAL VISIBILITY OF 3 TO 5 MILES IN FOG...CLEARING 
BY 17Z. SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT/ABOVE 10000 FT MSL. COASTAL STRATUS WILL 
GRADUALLY RETURN FOR COASTAL AIRPORTS INCLUDING KCRQ AND KSAN 
BETWEEN 27/0400Z-0800Z WITH SIMILAR BASES AND TOPS AS THIS MORNING.
MTNS/DESERTS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS 
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...MOST NUMEROUS IN RIVERSIDE AND SAN 
DIEGO COUNTIES. A THUNDERSTORM COULD REACH KPSP...WITH GREATEST 
THREAT BEING LIGHTNING. LOCAL VIS OF 3 MI WILL OCCUR WITH HEAVIER 
SHOWERS. BASES OF THE BKN-OVC CLOUDS WILL BE AT/ABOVE 8000 FT WITH 
ISOLATED TOPS TO 35000 FT MSL. 
&&
.MARINE...
200 AM PDT...NO HAZARDOUS MARINE WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN... 
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY. 
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE...17

Expires:No;;365929
SXUS86 KSGX 260451
CGRSGX
COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1000 PM PDT FRI JUL 25 2014
ID   /WX VSB  / WIND   / WAVE / SEA/ AIR/ PRESS/ REMARKS   STATION 
3L3  PC08     / CALM   /      /    / 69 /      /           NEWPORT BEACH