No Warnings

Expires:No;;460936
FXUS66 KSGX 280404
AFDSGX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
904 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014
.SYNOPSIS...
MONSOONAL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THE POSSIBILITY OF 
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND 
DESERTS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK WILL 
ELIMINATE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION...AND CREATE NEAR 
NORMAL MID-SUMMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IT WILL 
ALSO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER SHALLOW...LIMITING AREAS OF NIGHT AND 
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AT 9 PM PDT...RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO TREK 
ACROSS THE HIGH DESERT FROM EAST TO WEST. DEWPOINTS WERE MOSTLY IN 
THE MID 50S TO MID 60S AND WERE INCREASING OVER THE HIGH DESERT. 
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWED A VORTEX OF CLOUDS SWIRLING 
NW THROUGH CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY...THE REMNANT OF INTENSE 
CONVECTION OVER AZ EARLIER IN THE DAY. ELSEWHERE CLOUDS WERE SPOTTY. 
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL HAD AN AREA OF DARKENING AND POSSIBLE 
WEAK PVA MOVING NORTH THROUGH BAJA CA. THERE WAS NO WEATHER EVIDENT 
WITH IT AT 0345Z. ELSEWHERE...INTENSE CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING 
ACROSS AZ FROM NW TO SE. STRONGEST CELLS WERE ALONG THE MEXICAN 
BORDER SOUTH OF TUCSON. MOST OF SW AZ WAS CLEAR. THE 00Z MIRAMAR 
SOUNDING HAD 1.71 INCH OF PW AND MODEST CAPE OF AROUND 800 J/KG 
ABOVE 11K FT. 
A STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. 
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY WEST...REACHING ARIZONA BY FRIDAY. A WELL 
DEFINED EASTERLY WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL MOVE 
NORTH OVER BAJA CA OVERNIGHT...AND OVER SOCAL MON MORNING. AS THIS 
WAVE PASSES...MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY...ADVECTING 
IN DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE 
WEEK...THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF RUNS ALLOW WIND TO BACK MORE SOUTHERLY... 
OPENING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER MINOR PUSH OF MONSOONAL 
MOISTURE. HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK 
SO WARM SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE.
LITTLE CHANGE IS LIKELY WITH THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN THIS WEEK. 
A SEASONAL THERMAL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER 
VALLEY AND CONTINUE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. THIS SHOULD ALSO MAINTAIN A 
SHALLOW MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST...WITH PERIODS OF NIGHT AND 
MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTAL STRIP... 
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS THE MARINE 
LAYER EFFECTS BECOME MORE LIMITED. 
CONVECTION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WAVE DRIFTING 
NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA CA. BUT THERE HAS BEEN FEW CLOUDS AND 
LITTLE TO NO ENHANCEMENT THIS EVENING. PW VALUES ARE RUNNING CLOSE 
TO TWO INCHES THROUGHOUT THE REGION...SO WILL CARRY LOW POPS 
OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON MORNING ON THE OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME 
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A 
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT IF THUNDERSTORMS ERUPT AGAIN. 
MID-LEVEL STEERING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTHERLY...TURNING SW ON MON 
MORNING BEHIND THE WAVE. THE 00Z NAM12 SHOWS INCREASING ELEVATED 
CAPE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD MORNING. WITH DEEP 
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND THE APPROACHING WAVE...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO 
DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCAL FLOODING. FOR 
TOMORROW...THE CHANCE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING 
POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS.
IF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR TOMORROW...A FLASH 
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE HIGH PW AVAILABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...
280330Z...COASTS/VALLEYS...SCT-BKN 10000 FEET TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED 
SHOWERS. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS 
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BE NON-UNIFORM. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS 
1000-1500 AT KSAN/KCRQ/KSNA. LOW CLOUDS CLEARING AFT 16Z. MONDAY 
EVENING...LOW CLOUDS RETURNING TO THE COASTAL AIRPORTS AFTER 29/04Z.
 
MOUNTAINS/DESERTS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFT 17Z MONDAY WITH 
BASES 060-080...ENDING MONDAY EVENING. 
&&
.MARINE...
830 PM PDT...A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS 
MARINE WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.SKYWARN... 
SKYWARN ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED. HOWEVER WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE 
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...JAD
AVIATION/MARINE...MOEDE

Expires:No;;461988
SXUS86 KSGX 280452
CGRSGX
COASTAL WEATHER OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
1000 PM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014
ID   /WX VSB  / WIND   / WAVE / SEA/ AIR/ PRESS/ REMARKS   STATION 
3L3  CY10     / SSE06  /      /    / 71 /      /           NEWPORT BEACH