Expires:No;;160409
FXUS66 KSGX 052149
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
149 PM PST Thu Jan 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue through this afternoon, with a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Rain will end from northwest to 
southeast this evening and tonight. Mostly dry conditions are 
expected Friday into Saturday. The dry conditions will be short-
lived as more storm systems look to impact California next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At 1 PM, light to moderate rain continues over and west of the
mountains. The cold front, which brought widespread rain to
northern and western areas, is currently situated over our area. A
line of moderate rain extends from the Mojave Desert south into 
the San Diego County mountains. This will continue to push east
over the next couple of hours. Scattered showers are following
behind the front, so expect shower activity to continue through 
this afternoon. Lightning has been observed near Big Bear Lake, 
and additional thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon.

Winds have mostly weakened this afternoon for the coast and
valleys, so the Wind Advisories in those areas were allowed to
expire at noon. The Wind Advisories for the mountains and High
Desert will continue through 6PM this evening, as winds still
remain gusty there. 

Additional rainfall amounts this afternoon will be highly variable
based on where the scattered showers pop-up. Overall, expect an 
additional 0.10 to 0.30 inch west of the mountains, up to 0.50
inch over the mountains, possibly higher in the San Bernardino
Mountains. In the deserts, up to 0.20 inch is possible for the
remainder of today. 

Snow levels currently are hovering around 6,500 to 7,000 feet, but
are expected to drop to around 6,000 feet this afternoon once the
cold front passes. Higher snowfall totals are expected above 7,000
feet, but a couple of inches may accumulate between 6,000 and
6,500 feet. 

Precipitation will gradually decrease from northwest to southeast
this evening and tonight. Weak ridging will build in from the
south after the storm exits east, which will bring dry conditions
and warming Friday and Saturday. 

Dry conditions look to be relatively short-lived as the strong
Pacific jet will continue to direct low pressure systems into the
West Coast. There remains some differences in the models and
ensembles on the timing and placement of these systems, so the
extended forecast for the beginning to middle of next week has
increasing chances of precipitation beginning Sunday and
continuing into Tuesday. Currently, the late Monday through
Tuesday time period has the highest chances for precipitation,
but that could change as we approach early next week, so stay
tuned to the forecast! 

&&

.AVIATION...
052150Z...Areas of SHRA will continue across inland areas this 
afternoon, diminishing this evening. 500-1500 feet MSL and VIS
0-4SM in SHRA with higher terrain obscured through most of afternoon
BKN clouds 2000-4000 feet MSL with partial clearing after 06Z tonight. 
Mostly clear skies on Friday.

Southerly and westerly winds in mountains and deserts 25-40 kts 
will lead to MOD up/downdrafts and local LLWS over mountains into
adjacent deserts. Lighter winds with lighter winds after 08Z Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
A storm today will bring gales and hazardous seas. A Gale Warning is 
in effect through 4 PM today with locally strong winds and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. Hazardous seas today will gradually
subside late Friday into Saturday. No additional hazardous marine
conditions are expected late Friday through Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A large long-period swell will peak tonight and into Friday morning,
gradually subsiding later Friday. This will bring very high surf as 
high as 12 feet in Orange County and 16 feet in San Diego County. 
In addition, some coastal flooding is expected with the high tides 
this evening and Friday morning. Check the High Surf Warning, High 
Surf Advisory and the Coastal Flood Advisory for details.

&&
.SKYWARN... 
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST Friday for Orange County 
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     High Surf Warning until 6 PM PST Friday for San Diego County 
     Coastal Areas.

     Flood Watch until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Orange County 
     Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County 
     Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino 
     and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-Santa Ana 
     Mountains and Foothills.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Apple and Lucerne 
     Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains.

     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for San 
     Bernardino County Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for 
     Riverside County Mountains.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM PST Friday for Orange County 
     Coastal Areas.

PZ...Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters 
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending 
     30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Friday 
     for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican 
     Border and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the 
     Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San 
     Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...Connolly 
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...APR