*Annual Rainfall is based on the California Water Year,|
which runs from October 1 through September 30.
FXUS66 KSGX 260447 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
930 PM PDT Mon Oct 25 2021
Dry weather will prevail Tuesday through the weekend, with a warming
trend Tuesday through Thursday. Weak northeasterly winds will occur
Wednesday through Thursday. Onshore flow will return next weekend,
spreading cooling inland and bringing a return of night and morning
coastal low clouds and fog.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
The weakening atmospheric river storm system brought a widespread
and mainly beneficial rainfall to the SoCal region. The rain has
tapered off with the last bands of rain now moving through
Southeastern San Bernardino County near the Arizona border. There is
still the potential for a few showers to come off the ocean into
mainly San Diego County and Southern Orange County for a few more
hours. The gusty winds have also abated. The storm total rainfall
amounts and wind reports are available on our website and social
Previous Forecaster Discussion remains valid, issued at 2 pm PDT:
Fair weather will prevail starting late tonight as a broad area of
zonal high pressure over the east Pacific gradually shifts east into
the western US. Tuesday will be 5-10 deg F below normal, but
temperatures will recover to near normal Wednesday and 5-10 deg F
above normal Thursday, with some lower 90s possible in warmest
valleys based on some of the ENS contributors to MOS. The lower
deserts will likely be above 90 then as well. The high will weaken
over the weekend as some sort of troughing and/or upper low moves by
to the north, though models are inconsistent with details. Most
likely that will result in a cooling trend then and early next week,
with a return of marine layer stratus near the coast.
260335Z...Coasts/Valleys/Coastal Mountain Slopes...SHRA across San
Diego County will continue to move east-southeast and dissipate
through 06Z. CIGS locally down to 1500 ft MSL with viz 3-5 SM in
SHRA. After 06Z, SCT-BKN cloud layers 2500-5000 ft MSL gradually
clearing overnight. Coastal mountain slopes remaining obscured
through about 10-12Z. Mostly clear with unrestricted vis after 12Z
Desert Mountain Slopes/Deserts...W-NW winds with sfc gusts kts 25-35
kt continuing through 10Z and gradually weakening through the
remainder of the morning. STG up/downdrafts, rotors, and LLWS
possible over/east of the mountains, including VCTY KPSP. Otherwise
mostly clear with unrestricted vis through Tue evening.
Northwest winds gusting 20-25 kt and seas 6-12 ft will generate
conditions hazardous to small craft. A Small Craft Advisory is in
effect through early Tuesday morning. Conditions will gradually
improve through the day Tuesday. No hazardous marine weather is
expected Tuesday afternoon through Saturday.
A large, long period west swell and a 2 ft long period south swell
will combine to produce high surf and dangerous swimming conditions
through early Wednesday. Surf of 5 to 8 feet, with local sets to 10
feet in southern San Diego County and strong rip currents likely. A
High Surf Advisory is in effect through early Wednesday morning.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
CA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Tuesday for
Apple and Lucerne Valleys-Riverside County Mountains-San
Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San
Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.
High Surf Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Wednesday
for Orange County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Tuesday
for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
Border and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo point to the
Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San