*Annual Rainfall is based on the California Water Year,|
which runs from October 1 through September 30.
FXUS66 KSGX 052149
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
149 PM PST Thu Jan 5 2023
Scattered showers will continue through this afternoon, with a
slight chance of thunderstorms. Rain will end from northwest to
southeast this evening and tonight. Mostly dry conditions are
expected Friday into Saturday. The dry conditions will be short-
lived as more storm systems look to impact California next week.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
At 1 PM, light to moderate rain continues over and west of the
mountains. The cold front, which brought widespread rain to
northern and western areas, is currently situated over our area. A
line of moderate rain extends from the Mojave Desert south into
the San Diego County mountains. This will continue to push east
over the next couple of hours. Scattered showers are following
behind the front, so expect shower activity to continue through
this afternoon. Lightning has been observed near Big Bear Lake,
and additional thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon.
Winds have mostly weakened this afternoon for the coast and
valleys, so the Wind Advisories in those areas were allowed to
expire at noon. The Wind Advisories for the mountains and High
Desert will continue through 6PM this evening, as winds still
remain gusty there.
Additional rainfall amounts this afternoon will be highly variable
based on where the scattered showers pop-up. Overall, expect an
additional 0.10 to 0.30 inch west of the mountains, up to 0.50
inch over the mountains, possibly higher in the San Bernardino
Mountains. In the deserts, up to 0.20 inch is possible for the
remainder of today.
Snow levels currently are hovering around 6,500 to 7,000 feet, but
are expected to drop to around 6,000 feet this afternoon once the
cold front passes. Higher snowfall totals are expected above 7,000
feet, but a couple of inches may accumulate between 6,000 and
Precipitation will gradually decrease from northwest to southeast
this evening and tonight. Weak ridging will build in from the
south after the storm exits east, which will bring dry conditions
and warming Friday and Saturday.
Dry conditions look to be relatively short-lived as the strong
Pacific jet will continue to direct low pressure systems into the
West Coast. There remains some differences in the models and
ensembles on the timing and placement of these systems, so the
extended forecast for the beginning to middle of next week has
increasing chances of precipitation beginning Sunday and
continuing into Tuesday. Currently, the late Monday through
Tuesday time period has the highest chances for precipitation,
but that could change as we approach early next week, so stay
tuned to the forecast!
052150Z...Areas of SHRA will continue across inland areas this
afternoon, diminishing this evening. 500-1500 feet MSL and VIS
0-4SM in SHRA with higher terrain obscured through most of afternoon
BKN clouds 2000-4000 feet MSL with partial clearing after 06Z tonight.
Mostly clear skies on Friday.
Southerly and westerly winds in mountains and deserts 25-40 kts
will lead to MOD up/downdrafts and local LLWS over mountains into
adjacent deserts. Lighter winds with lighter winds after 08Z Fri.
A storm today will bring gales and hazardous seas. A Gale Warning is
in effect through 4 PM today with locally strong winds and isolated
thunderstorms this afternoon. Hazardous seas today will gradually
subside late Friday into Saturday. No additional hazardous marine
conditions are expected late Friday through Monday.
A large long-period swell will peak tonight and into Friday morning,
gradually subsiding later Friday. This will bring very high surf as
high as 12 feet in Orange County and 16 feet in San Diego County.
In addition, some coastal flooding is expected with the high tides
this evening and Friday morning. Check the High Surf Warning, High
Surf Advisory and the Coastal Flood Advisory for details.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 6 PM PST Friday for Orange County
Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.
High Surf Warning until 6 PM PST Friday for San Diego County
Flood Watch until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Orange County
Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-Riverside County
Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Bernardino
and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-Santa Ana
Mountains and Foothills.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Apple and Lucerne
Valleys-San Bernardino County Mountains.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM PST this evening for San
Bernardino County Mountains.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for
Riverside County Mountains.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM PST Friday for Orange County
PZ...Gale Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters
from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 30 nm-
Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending
30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Friday
for Coastal Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican
Border and out to 30 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the
Mexican Border Extending 30 to 60 nm out including San