*Annual Rainfall is based on the California Water Year,|
which runs from October 1 through September 30.
FXUS66 KSGX 290600 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
945 PM PST Fri Jan 28 2022
Santa Ana winds will continue into Saturday, with the strongest
winds occurring this afternoon across the mountains and coastal
mountain slopes. A weak low pressure will allow for light rain and
snow showers to develop across the mountains on Saturday.
Precipitation amounts will remain very light with this activity.
Onshore flow is expected to return on Sunday and persist through
Tuesday before turning offshore again on Wednesday.
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
Evening Update: The Santa Ana winds are easing this evening in the
northern areas and the wind advisory will be allowed to expire.
Gusty winds will continue overnight in San Diego County, and the
wind advisory will continue in effect in those areas through mid-
morning Saturday. No other updates were needed to the forecast this
evening. The offshore pressure gradient will continue to relax
through tonight as the ridge moves eastward towards the Rockies.
Winds look to slowly weaken through this evening across northern
areas, and overnight across San Diego County.
Short Term Discussion: An upper-level low pressure system will
progress eastward on Saturday over our region, but it is lacking any
substantial moisture. There is a very slight chance for flurries
over the mountains Saturday afternoon and evening but any
precipitation will remain light. Highs will cool by several degrees
as winds turn back onshore, and relative humidity will increase.
This system will quickly move east of the region on Sunday and
warmer temperatures will redevelop.
Longwave troughing looks to develop across the West Coast later on
Monday into Tuesday. Models begin to diverge on strength and timing
of shortwaves moving through the region. The 12z ECMWF EPS mean is
showing a slightly stronger ridge off of the West Coast and a
stronger trough. However, ensemble members amongst the 12z ECMWF
suite show a wide range of solutions in regards to timing of the
trough moving through Southern California; a slower progression will
lead to weaker winds. After the trough passes winds will turn back
offshore. This uncertain timing is leading to a large spread in high
temperature guidance. However, a ridge looks to rebuild sometime
towards the middle of next week with a slow warming trend expected.
FIRE WEATHER...Improving RH and decreasing wind tonight through
Saturday will help to ease local fire weather conditions, and that
trend will continue through early next week.
290405Z...Northeast to east winds will continue through Sat morning
across the coastal mountain slopes and into the valleys and inland
Orange County with gusts of 25-30 kt and local gusts to 40 kt
possible in the Santa Ana Mountains, below San Gorgonio Pass and
along the coastal slopes of the San Diego mountains. Moderate to
strong up/downdrafts and LLWS are expected over and west of the
mountains through Sat morning, including vcnty KSNA, KONT and KCRQ
Otherwise, SCT-BKN high clouds at/above 25,000 feet MSL and
unrestricted vis tonight, with clouds lowering to 15,000 feet MSL
Easterly winds will weaken tonight and Saturday. No hazardous marine
conditions are expected tonight through Wednesday.
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
CA...Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for San Diego County
Mountains-San Diego County Valleys.